(From the diaries. I wouldn’t go so far as to call MO-GOV a “safe Democratic pickup” just yet, though. – promoted by James L.)
Cross-posted from Election Inspection, here are the latest Governor polls:
| State | Incumbent | Poll | Dem Candidate | % | Rep Candidate | % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IN | Daniels | Research 2000 4/21-4/24 | Jill Long Thompson | 45 | Mitch Daniels | 45 |
| MO | Blunt | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | Jay Nixon | 57 | Kenny Hulshof | 33 |
| MO | Blunt | SUSA 5/16-5/18 | Jay Nixon | 58 | Sarah Steelman | 33 |
| MT | Schweitzer | Mason-Dixon 5/19-5/21 | Brian Schweitzer | 55 | Roy Brown | 30 |
| NC | Easley | SUSA 5/17-5/19 | Bev Perdue | 52 | Pat McCrory | 45 |
| UT | Huntsman | Dan Jones & Assoc. 5/13-5/19 | Bob Springmeyer | 13 | Jon Huntsman | 77 |
| WA | Gregoire | Rasmussen 5/12 | Christine Gregoire | 52 | Dino Rossi | 41 |
Thus far, Missouri looks to be a Safe Democratic pickup, while Indiana is a toss-up. Vermont is currently unpolled, but State Speaker of the House Gaye Symington (D-VT) could make the race against incumbent GOP Gov. Jim Douglas a competitive one. North Carolina and Washington look like likely Democratic retentions so far. I don’t expect Utah, North Dakota, West Virginia, Montana, or New Hampshire to become competitive, and the only question in Delaware is which Democrat will win the primary.
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Likely Dem if you prefer, James, but 24/25 point margins are pretty strong.
It’s ashame that all those 2010 governorships aren’t up for grabs this year instead. We’d have picked up a ton if they were.
But I have a funny feeling the only Governorship to change hands will be MO, and we’ll fall just short in IN. Still, MO will be a HUGE pickup as it guarantees that republicans will not have control over redistricting of MO in 2012. Indiana would also be a huge pickup for the same reason if we win there.
This Washington poll is the only one to come out that hasnt shown the race tied since it started. It would be silly to cherrypick one poll and say a race is a likely Democratic retention when all these others show a tied race.
I think right now it looks like Missouri governor race is the most likely pick-up
I have mixed feelings with Indiana, It one of the most Republican states in the Midwest (not voting for a Democratic president since the ’64 Lyndon Johnson landslide) I haven’t seen any signs of this trend weakening for the November election.
But at the same time Indiana voters aren’t stupid and know the difference when it comes to who represents them. In ’06 Indiana was one of the few states that kicked many Republicans (proportionally) out of office(a total of 3 Republicans in the 9 house Delegation) Giving one Democrat, Brad Ellsworth, one of the highest electoral margins knocking off Republican John Hostettler 61-39 in the ’06 midterms.
Then comes Mitch Daniels who has been quite an unpopular term, being the first Republican governor in 16 years. His implementation of Daylight savings time along with leasing Indiana toll road led to a plummet in his poll numbers. He even angered his own base when he “proposed a one year 1% tax increase on all individuals and entities earning over $100,000”
So had this election been held last year I would have said a Dem would have won it hands down, but since then his numbers have rebounded to make the race toss-up
have been Rasmussen polls. It only makes sense to quote them ost recent one. Aside from Rasmussen I believe the other most recent poll has Gregoire up about 5 points.
There’s a progressive running in Vermont. Anthony somebody. He was in before Symington and he’s run statewide before, so it’s my understanding that he’s not eager to withdraw. If that happens we have to hope Douglas is held below 50%, because that way the Vermont House votes for governor. And that could fundamentally hurt the perceived legitimacy of whoever is chosen.
This, by the way, is the reason Douglas has vetoed fusion voting.